Ukraine has
always been geographically in-between the two great powers of Europe and Russia,
but historically has always been very close to Russia.
Economically speaking, it is also known that Russia is a great provider of gas – 15% of European resources, more than half of Ukraine’s. Russia has therefore a
great deterring power there, whether it be on Europe directly or on its neighboring
countries, like Ukraine and others.[1] It has actually already resorted to this device on Ukraine twice, on 2006 and
2009 after the two sides failed to settle over Ukrainian debt issues.
It is not easy to categorize people and delimitate territories since the Ukrainian population presents many differences of ethnic belonging (Ukrainians, Russians and Turkic Tatars all living together), in language, and in ideology. A survey in late 2013 showed that 53% of respondents were in favor of the EU, 35% were against, and 12% remain undecided. What is also striking is that, taken under the light of age groups, “the youngest respondents (18-29 yearsold) are twice more supportive for the EU than the oldest (60+)”. Therefore we see that the conflict is not only ethnic and political, but also generational.
After a referendum in March at the outcome of which Crimea overwhelmingly declared her support to annexation, Putin came to sign a treaty with Crimean leaders, thereby annexing the region, to the dismay of the international community. War between the two sides did not stop though: a cease-fire was signed on September 5, however it is not always observed everywhere, some surges of violence recently appearing again.
Ukraine's near future is not very bright: it is now in a difficult position, Russia having cut off again its gas supplying on the eve of winter and Western powers being hesitant to help considering the country's slow pace of change especially regarding gangrenous corruption. Ukraine president has recently come to the US to plead for their cause, but not much more help can be expected on the part of the Americans for now.
 |
| V. Putin and P. Porochenko (from Le Nouvel Observateur) |
But in 2012, in
spite of such tensions with Russia things were going in a way that predicted
Ukraine’s potential partnership with the EU: Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych had begun to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. But in November
2013, the president pulled out and instead moved closer to Russia, which had
proposed a $15 billion bailout to the country.
A wave of pro-EU
protesters took to the streets; the conflict between the government and protesters
escalated, and the latter ended up seizing the president’s office. Yanukovych denounced
a coup d’état[2],
and was driven off; an interim government was appointed until the next elections
on May 25, 2014, that were won by Petro Porochenko. But pro-Russian and
pro-Yanukovych protesters also went down the streets in the Southern and Eastern
parts of Ukraine, the Southernmost known as Crimea, the region most Russophone
of the country. They began occupying some administrative spots in the region,
and the conflict worsened between pro- and anti-Russian.
 |
| Ukraine's ethnic map (from The Washington Post) |
It is not easy to categorize people and delimitate territories since the Ukrainian population presents many differences of ethnic belonging (Ukrainians, Russians and Turkic Tatars all living together), in language, and in ideology. A survey in late 2013 showed that 53% of respondents were in favor of the EU, 35% were against, and 12% remain undecided. What is also striking is that, taken under the light of age groups, “the youngest respondents (18-29 yearsold) are twice more supportive for the EU than the oldest (60+)”. Therefore we see that the conflict is not only ethnic and political, but also generational.
After a referendum in March at the outcome of which Crimea overwhelmingly declared her support to annexation, Putin came to sign a treaty with Crimean leaders, thereby annexing the region, to the dismay of the international community. War between the two sides did not stop though: a cease-fire was signed on September 5, however it is not always observed everywhere, some surges of violence recently appearing again.
Ukraine's near future is not very bright: it is now in a difficult position, Russia having cut off again its gas supplying on the eve of winter and Western powers being hesitant to help considering the country's slow pace of change especially regarding gangrenous corruption. Ukraine president has recently come to the US to plead for their cause, but not much more help can be expected on the part of the Americans for now.
This article was written for this blog only.
[1] For instance 75% of Lithuania’s energetic supplies comes from Russia,
a great means of pressure considering the lack of European energetic policy for
its members (Jolanta BALČIŪNIENĖ, Lithuanian ambassador in France, conference “Mid-term
appraisal of the Lithuanian presidency at the head of the EU” at the Maison de
l’Europe, October 17, 2013, Paris)
[2] Last March 2014, a poll by the International Republican
Institute (“Public Opinion Survey of Ukraine (14–26 March 2014)", April 5,
2014) showed that 27% of the respondents in Southern and Eastern Ukraine viewed the
pro-EU protests as a coup d'état as well
No comments:
Post a Comment